The Long War on Global Supply Chains: An Urgent Call for Predictive Defense 

For nearly three decades, a quiet but persistent war has been waged against the arteries of global commerce. China, Russia, and other state and non-state actors have methodically targeted the world’s supply chains— not through missiles or armies— through manipulation, control, and disruption of the commercial networks that underpin modern life. 

This “long war” has accelerated in the past decade with a singular goal: erode the complex global supply chain systems supporting the United States and its allies, ultimately destabilizing populations, economies, and governments without firing a shot. 

Today, two new realities define the battlefield. 

First, as the relative predictability of the Cold War’s bipolar system has shifted to today’s chaotic and multipolar “pick-up game” of shifting alliances, nations form and abandon partnerships as interests change. Even traditional allies increasingly act transactionally, creating instability in partnerships and increased uncertainty. 

Second, the post-World War II rules-based global trading system was designed on an assumption that economic interdependence would deter armed conflict. That playbook no longer applies. The rules are being rewritten daily by actors who do not feel bound by them, scrapping what we thought we knew about the divide between peace and war. 

The new reality created by these factors demands a mindset shift for national security and business leaders alike. They must now play offense and defense simultaneously— often several times a week— against opponents who change players, coaches, and playbooks with every encounter. There is no advance scouting, no game film, and no neutral referee. 

So, who are we playing against?